Happy Holidays!! I wish you and your families the very best!!
Thank you for taking time out to read this second surf report. We have many more waves to scope out at Gold beach. Its just a light jog up the sand where we’ll find some epic GDXJ sets rolling in. Just as in the first report for GDX we’ll look at the top 10 miners in the VanEck Junior Gold Miners Exchange traded fund GDXJ which represents more than 38% of the fund’s total weighting.
As an aside I will sometimes break out the surfing lingo now and then to keep these reports fun and in character. I miss the days I spent in southern California riding the waves in my early years during college. In case you would like to learn some surf lingo yourself this site has quite a few terms defined…
https://surfing-waves.com/surf_talk.htm
“cranker” - a good wave
Ok brah, let’s go charge it and carve out some totally rad shoulders in some junior goldie miner waves!
GDXJ
We should first look at the GDXJ ETF itself since we didn’t review that in the Part 10 of the U21CSD. The ETF experienced a massive drawdown from 2011-2016 but continues to make higher lows. Assuming it makes 5 waves up it will likely continue filling out an intermediate wave (1) to begin Primary 3. Much higher targets await if it can break past Fib resistance and the current price top channel. You'll notice I started using some Fib speed resistance fans to identify potential areas of support resistance as well. It will be interesting to see how these hold up as we revisit these charts in the future.
Yamana Gold, AUY
I had a chart prepared a chart for Yamana Gold but remembered it was recently announced that AUY had entered into agreement to be acquired by Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) and Pan American Silver (PAAS). Yamana Gold holds a 50% interest in the Canadian Malartic mine which is Canada’s largest gold mine and is Yamana’s biggest producer. We covered the AEM chart in the last Surf Report and will cover PAAS later here. As you can see the future is never certain and Elliott Waves cannot predict mergers and acquisitions. I was a long time holder of Kirkland Lake Gold until I became a holder of AEM shares earlier this year. Suffice to say the long term Kirkland Lake Gold Elliott Wave count was invalidated!
Kinross Gold Corp, KGC
KGC also is making higher highs and higher lows and recently found support for Intermediate (2) at the 61.8% Fib support. Things will get interesting as price heads towards the upper downtrend line as one could interpret the entire wave structure as a A-E Primary triangle. Will KGC breakout and invalidate the triangle? We shall see. KGC can shred some much higher extensions in a Primary 3 if so!
Alamos Gold, AGI
Alamos is a Canadian-based gold producer with three operating mines in North America. Price is just now testing the multi-year downtrend! If it can hang in there and not wipeout some exciting Fib extension targets lay ahead in Primary 3! Cowabunga!
Pan American Silver, PAAS
What’s silver miner doing in a “gold” ETF? As one will find with many other silver miners, PAAS has a diversified portfolio of mining assets and a large portion of its production actually comes from gold1. Primary wave 2 seems to have found support at the 76.4% Fib level and may have begun an epic Primary wave 3. Seems like PAAS's gold acquisitions and increased production could provide an amazing ride.
Endeavour Mining, EDV.V
Endeavour Mining owns and operates gold mines in Côte d'Ivoire, Burkina Faso, and Senegal in West Africa. EDV.V is also on the verge of making a major breakout from a multi-year downtrend after finding support at the 23.6% Fib level. Once it completes an intermediate (1)-(2) we can adjust projections for where Primary 3 may target but for now the standard projection on the Primary 1-2 is not something one should ignore.
B2gold Corp, BTO.V
B2gold is a Canadian mining company that owns and operates gold mines in Mali, Namibia and the Philippines. Its share price is fighting to rise back above Fib resistance after a deep Minor wave 2 retrace to the 76.4% Fib support. Completing a 5 wave impulsive structure would indicate Primary wave 3 extension targets as much as 9x current price.
Evolution Mining, EVN.ASX
Evolution Mining is an Australian gold mining company with projects across Australia and in Ontario, Canada. Price has been in a major uptrend since 2009 with a clear price channel forming. Primary 2 found support at the 78.6% Fib and we now will be very interested to find out if either a 3 wave ABC diagonal (alternate count in yellow) or a 5 wave standard impulse structure will form for Primary 3. Standard Fib extensions for Primary 3 imply the current multi-year channel will be broken and an impulsive structure could be in play. Extremely amped for this one if it can breakout into the new higher price channel.
Industrias Peñoles S.A.B De CV
Peñoles is a subsidiary company owned by Grupo BAL and is the second largest Mexican mining company, the first Mexican producer of gold, zinc and lead and is the world leader in silver production. Intermediate (1) is appears to be making a 3 wave ABC. Based on where a corrective (2) retraces thereafter we can then project the remaining intermediate extension target but Primary 3 is another 9x higher in price and is also consistent with the current price channel.
SSR Mining, SSRM
Formerly Silver Standard Resources, SSRM is a Denver based gold, silver, copper, lead and zinc producer that owns the largest silver mine in Argentina. The Primary wave 3 projection sits quite a bit higher than those in the Intermediate count so one must consider the potential for overextensions in the intermediate degree or Primary 3 lasting quite a bit longer than is shown if price is to remain in the current channel. We could also see a lower (2) before the next bullish leg of Primary 3 gets underway but price so far has maintained support above the 38.2% Fib level. This currently is a bullish P1-P2,(1)-(2) wave structure if it can hold.
Hecla Mining, HL
Hecla Mining is the largest silver miner in the United Sates. Its share price has been in a larger degree downtrend its entire history but has made higher lows from the all time low made in the year 2000. Breaking out above the 60 year downward trend would be totally awesome to say the least and would provide for an legendary wave to ride to the heavens above as a new upward channel is carved out.
Summary
Lots of potential great waves here I must say provided the intermediate cycle lows in metals are in. Again nothing will go up in a straight line; 5up-3down-5up-3down-repeat. It is important to note that we could also see 3-wave diagonal structures as described here2 and we would need to modify these counts and Fibonacci extensions accordingly. I showed a yellow alternate count in Evolution Mining as an example. It will all depend on how extended the underlying metals themselves get. Again these are just initial surf reports and we must adapt to changing weather and wave patterns if we need to as nothing is ever certain (except death and taxes).
However, using standard impulsive structures and extensions we can begin to find potential targets for this lineup of gold miners. Note that I am only listing the Intermediate Wave 3 targets for KGC and EVN.ASX as those two have less certain structures and major price trend channels to break.
That wraps up this surf report. Right next to Gold Beach is Silver Beach and I heard the waves there can sometimes be fast and treacherous but truly epic if one can catch them. We’ll start off to see if there are any good rides in the top holdings of the Global X Silver Miners SIL ETF.
Some Disclosure: Once again I must say that these views/counts are my own. This is not financial advice so please take it for what you will (add this analysis to your own perspective if you wish). For every primary count there are alternate wave structures/counts to consider. What I’m trying to show here are standard potential Elliott Wave counts and extensions provided the intermediate bottom in metals has been struck with a larger degree move beginning. The only name I actually own myself at this time is HL. (But after charting these I may initiate others on corrective pullbacks!)
I hope you enjoyed this report! Until next time…
Cheers and #EndTheFed!!
-Hypersonic78
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If you enjoy these reports, coffee or KAG are greatly appreciated if you wish…
Coffee: Ko-fi.com/hypersonic78
Kinesis KAU/KAG: GAO2JIBCQFAEOPHJPGEIAKIANOJ5ZMBSGARLGLY5PRNJGKD64W3OZZNC
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4492680-pan-american-silver-leverage-to-silver
Hi, I enjoy reading your analysis. I like your thought process. Interesting ideas. Maybe I could start up a rival skate boarding cycle report based on my interpretation of cycle analysis based on time periods.