Let’s talk about B waves shall we? Unrelated to surfing, if I were describe a B wave it be like a crazy hot girlfriend. They are lots of fun while they last and can really get one’s excitement up. But then out of nowhere they take your money, disappear and leave you wondering what the heck happened. In Elliott Wave analysis, B waves are no different than that crazy hot girlfriend. They can be quite exciting and actually exceed the highs made in the previous 5 wave structure. Many times a B wave can equal the previous high in what’s referred to as a “double top” in traditional technical analysis. Many people who don’t know about Elliott’s Waves will not realize that the entire 2002-2008 rally in the equity markets were really just a giant B wave / bear market rally.
B waves are also very uncertain and difficult to determine where they may fizzle out. Elliottician extraordinaire Avi Gilburt (whom I have learned so much from these past few years) gives another great analogy for a B wave. I remember him saying many times that identifying the structure and potential top/resistance levels for a B wave is like throwing Jell-O at a target hung on a wall a dozen feet away and trying to make sure it all lands on the bullseye; its just not going to happen very cleanly. The best surfing analogy for B waves I can come up with would be night surfing. It could be really cool if you catch a great ride but you also can’t see the sharp rocks lurking underneath if you wipe out!
So be careful of any hidden B waves out there within the larger degree wave 2s and 4s. Yes that certainly includes some of the structures we may be seeing in the URA ETF and related shares. I want y’all primed and ready to paddle out to hit the big wave 3s and 5s with maximum force and energy without any dings on your board or worse from a treacherous C wave. Let’s now continue with the next 10 holdings of URA.
Samsung C&T, 028260.KS
Samsung C&T Corporation ("Construction & Trading Corporation") is a South Korean company that specializes in engineering, procurement, and construction as is best known for its role in skyscraper projects, including the famous Burj Khalifa in Dubai. Samsung C&T's Plant Business Unit has been involved in the construction of modern power plants—both conventional and nuclear. Its past projects include the UAE Nuclear Power Complex and Emal Power Plant, as well as the LNG Terminal in Singapore. I can see two separate counts. The share price only made a 3 wave rally off the 2020 low and has been in decline since the 2021 top. One must be prepared for a larger degree Intermediate 5 wave decline shown in the yellow count if price does not reverse impulsively following the completion of what could also be an ABC flat in red.
GS Engineering, 006360.KS
GS Engineering & Construction Corporation is a Korea-based global Engineering, procurement, and construction contractor having wide range of experience in refineries, gas and petrochemical, and nuclear power plants providing design and construction services. GS Energy is also investing in various business opportunities, including small modular reactor technologies. Unfortunately I see a clear larger degree long term decline that still needs to finish a 5th Intermediate wave down. After that fills out we can look for the potential for a reversal.
Sibayne Stillwater, SBSW
We last looked at SBSW in Surf Report 5. You are probably wondering as I did why its a holding in a Uranium sector ETF. Not only does SBSW produce Platinum Group metals and Gold, but it also has 100-million pounds of shallow and surface uranium resources at the Beatrix West mine in the Free State Province of South Africa, as well as uranium tailings at its Cooke asset in Gauteng, where it has established uranium processing infrastructure.1 Since Surf Report 5, Primary 2 is going deeper and could even stretch to the 61.8% retracement level.
Centrus Energy, LEU
Centrus Energy Corp. is an American company that supplies nuclear fuel for use in nuclear power plants and works to develop and deploy advanced centrifuge technology to produce enriched uranium for commercial and government uses, including for national security. We still do not know if Intermediate (4) is complete as price has yet to rally through and hold the 0.618-0.786 pivot. A larger B wave could certainly be in play. As I stated before in the introduction, we must be careful surfing in the moonlight.
Aecon Group Inc, ARE.TO
Aecon Group Inc. is a construction company in Canada that produces construction materials including asphalt and aggregate materials, and pre-construction and pre-fabrication materials developed in eight company-owned fabrication facilities across Canada. As one of Aecon’s three primary business segments, Aecon Industrial covers a range of services to numerous projects, from new and existing mines to hydroelectric facilities, natural gas power plants, oil and gas facilities, cogeneration plants, and nuclear plants. I’m giving this one the benefit of the doubt for an Intermediate (5) within a diagonal but the price rally from 2009 is very overlapping and corrective in nature which stinks of a B wave (shown in yellow). Especially given the impulsiveness of the decline from the 2021 high. Price moving down below the 2011 low near 6.63 CAD would confirm a lower Primary 2.
Nuscale Power Corp, SMR
NuScale Power Corporation is a an American company that designs and markets small modular reactors (SMRs) A 50 MWe version of its reactor design was certified by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) in January 2023. NuScale has agreements to build reactors in Idaho in 2029 and 20302. Price is in a clear 5 wave decline that has yet to finish. I’ve placed some Fib extensions where potential support may be found and where we can begin looking for a reversal dependent upon the type of rally we see thereafter. We have 6 more years until the company begins building its reactors. Will the markets and by extension Elliott’s waves predict a reversal in price and NuScale’s future success? Only time will tell. 5 impulsive waves off a positive divergent low will be the first sign of that potential.
Deep Yellow Ltd, DYL.AX
Deep Yellow Limited is an Australian based company which, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a uranium exploration company in Namibia. The company holds a 100% interest in the Reptile project, 65% interest in the Nova Joint Venture, and 85% interest in the Yellow Dune Joint Venture. Based on the wave structure and Fib extensions, price seems to be in the heart of a wave C decline within an Intermediate wave (4). However I can also count a larger degree 3 wave diagonal (shown in yellow) which would potentially have higher Fib extension levels for a Primary 3 but that is less probable at this time. In any case the downside C wave structure does not look complete so one must be careful chasing price until there is a 5 wave impulsive rally (I see only 3 waves so far from the April low.
Silex Systems Ltd, SLX.AX
Silex Systems Limited is an Australian technology company focused on the commercialization its innovative SILEX laser enrichment technology for application to Uranium production and enrichment (nuclear power) and Silicon enrichment (silicon quantum computing). When I first looked at the SLX wave structure, two words came to mind “totally awesome”. Very clean 5 waves up from 2019 in what culminated in a 3500+% Intermediate wave (1) rally. Wave (2) appears to be underway in a much needed consolidation. I personally will be watching this one very carefully in the coming months to see how (2) fills out as it may present an incredible (1)-(2) setup. If (2) only retraces to the 38.2% then Wave (3) extensions could be even higher. And this another reason I do these Surf Reports. Not only they could they help readers of this Substack learn more about Elliott Wave and understand potential risk in various charts, but it also forces me to look at stocks I probably would’ve ignored otherwise. I’m not going to ignore the longer term potential in Silex.
Fission Uranium Corp, FCU.TO
Fission Uranium Corp. is a Canadian mineral exploration company engaged in the exploration and development of uranium resources. Its sole project is the Patterson Lake South (PLS) Project located in Canada's Athabasca Basin District. Its important to not the the wave structure from the 2020 low was not a clear 5 up so for this to be bullish longer term we’d need to assume a larger degree diagonal which does carry less certainty. Price rallied pretty hard on Friday with 10% gain. I still think caution is warranted though since we still don’t have clear 5 waves up from the April lows. A 5 wave rally above the November 2022 highs would change my views. There is quite a bit of potential for Intermediate wave (3) targets.
EnCore Energy Corp, EU.V
EnCore Energy Corp. engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of uranium resource properties in the United States. EnCore solely utilizes In-Situ Recovery (ISR) for uranium extraction. Uranium production is planned at enCore’s licensed and past-producing South Texas processing plants at Rosita and Alta Mesa in 2023 and 2024, respectively. Future projects in enCore’s production pipeline include the Dewey-Burdock project in South Dakota and the Gas Hills project in Wyoming, along with significant uranium resource endowments in New Mexico. Unlike many other mining companies in the Uranium sector, EU.V found a very meaningful low back in 2014. Based on the wave structure and Fibs, price is already in an Intermediate wave (3) which needs one more wave higher in the Minor degree to complete. Price is trying to find a bottom in 4 and I would not be surprised to see a bottom channel touch as low as the 50% retracement level before wave 5 of (3) begins. Like FCU, 5 waves up above November 2022 highs would change my perspective and educe risk of lower lows.
Summary and Observations
There are certainly a few standouts here with some potentially outstanding long term Intermediate (3) and (5) waves around the corner. A few others (Samsung C&T, GS Engineering, and Aecon) are in larger degree declines so a lot more patience is needed. Those in particular that do not have as great of exposure to the Uranium sector which is interesting. As always here is a summary table of what we looked at here and in previous URA Surf Reports. SBSW, SLX.AX, and FCU.TO appear to be the standouts but all need to make or confirm their local bottoms first before we can get too excited. I’m unable to make any bullish projections on GS Engineering or Nuscale based on there current wave stuctures.
For completeness I’ve linked updated charts (linked to TradingView) for previous analysis made in SR7.1 and SR 7.2 as well…
URA CCJ U-UN.TO NXE KAP.IL PDN.AX UEC DNN YCA.L
UUUU 8001.T 7011.T 034020.KS 000720.KS BOE.AX 047040.KS BHP.AX 052690.KS
We have now analyzed well over half of the holdings of the URA ETF and have about 20 left. We should be able to finish looking at those in 2 more surf reports but let’s take a intermission and begin a new series of reports in parallel. I think many are tripped up in the real estate / housing sector right now. I see many people with the belief that housing prices may never decline again given tight inventory levels and 20 year high mortgage rates. We had a preview of what may happen to the real estate sector in Part 6 of the Upcoming 21st Century Stagflationary Depression series published over a year ago. House prices did pull back some but then found strength in the spring. What’s happening there? I think we should take a closer look at the Homebuilders as they historically lead housing by 9-12 months. Many homebuilders have shown amazing price strength this past year. Will that continue or are larger degree corrections coming for them and the housing sector as a whole? A closer analysis seems warranted so stay tuned for Surf Report 8.1 which will begin our analysis for components of the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF.
Thank you for reading, cheers, and #EndTheFed!
-Hypersonic78
Disclaimer: None of this is financial advice. Please do your own diligence. The views expressed here and other Surf Reports are my own. Only risk what you can afford to lose in these crazy markets. Know your timeframes, parameters, and risk tolerance.
Position Disclosure: I currently maintain a long-term core long position in SBSW (which I’ve recently been adding to). I am watching others for a possible low risk long entry.
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https://www.miningweekly.com/article/sibanye-stillwater-2021-08-26
https://apnews.com/article/technology-or-state-wire-ut-state-wire-id-state-wire-science-910766c07afd96fbe2bd875e16087464