Surf Report 9.4-5: The "Endless Summer" in Precious Metals and Miners
Junior Gold Miners, GDXJ Part 5
Great surfers are legends but the waves themselves can become legendary in their own right. Many surfers seem to be stuck on one swell in particular. This was the Swell of 1969. According to Matt Warshaw who is a former professional surfer, former writer and editor at Surfer magazine, and the Encyclopedia of Surfing, the Swell of 69 is the “benchmark big-wave swell, sometimes referred to as the ‘swell of the century,’ producing monstrous waves in Hawaii and the West Coast during the first week of December 1969.”
“There’s never been a winter that big,” says Laird. “Anywhere. Since 1969. That I know of in my lifetime, before or after, I don’t think there’s ever been a swell that big. If you saw the pictures of it, you have never seen anything like that in your life. There were no sets. It was just line after line after line, as far as the eye could see. The entire day. That wasn’t a hurricane; that was a ground swell.”
-Laird Hamilton
Laird was only a toddler during the Swell of 1969 but look how he talks about it. As we discovered in the last Surf Report there are some pretty big waves that occur on a regular basis at Nazaré in Portugal and there are many other big breaks elsewhere that we’ll eventually discover in future reports. That swell which occurred in the winter of 1969 obviously stands out for many surfers young and old. Some waves stand out.
This is also true in Elliott Wave. Any remember the great silver wave of 2011? How about 1980? What about gold’s monstrous multi-year wave spanning 1976-1980? If you are familiar at all with the history of precious metals, you’ll remember those waves, even if you didn’t participate in them. They have become legendary. Will we see waves like that again? Well we certainly are seeing Gold put on quite a show lately with new all time highs being printed week after week. The current gold rally is certainly one for the books. Furthermore gold miners are moving higher as well with GDX hitting highs not seen since 2012 and GDXJ breaking out into highs not achieved since 2013. Something extraordinary is certainly happening in the Precious Metals and Mining sector. I have a feeling the great precious metals bull market we are currently witnessing will also become legendary before its all over. We are witnessing those waves first hand here in this effort as we continue our review of the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ). I’m glad you’re “on board” and hope you are enjoying the ride. Its not quite over yet in my view. Let’s continue looking at these GDXJ holdings. Many of the companies in this report you’ve see before in prior Surf Reports as they exist in other ETFs such as GDX. In these cases we shall complete an update for smaller degree counts as we normally do.
GDXJ Update
When we last reviewed GDXJ in Surf Report 9.4-4, we were looking for confirmation of the Minor degree wave 4 bottom achieved in December 2024. Since that time we have obtained such confirmation after the bottom of Minor degree pivot level held as support. Minor degree wave 5 is well on its way and actually has enough structure present to be considered to be complete depending on how one interprets the smaller degree wave counts. However I do not see negative divergence quite yet. I can still see a potential (iv), (v) left before the Intermediate degree wave structure is complete.
G Mining Ventures Corp (GMIN.TO)
Our first individual miner that we’ll cover in this report is G Mining Ventures Corp which is a Canadian headquartered gold mining company engaged in the acquisition, exploration and development of precious metal projects. GMIN is currently anchored by the Tocantinzinho Gold Mine in Brazil and Oko West Gold Project in Guyana. As there is not a lot of price history for GMIN in TradingView with data only available from 2020, we’ll focus on what we have available in the smaller degrees. As you can see GMIN had a very significant rally from 2020-2021 rising over 1500% in what can be considered an A wave in the Intermediate degree. Price then consolidated for over a year in a shallow (B) wave and now we are seeing a very strong and sustained (C) wave rally complete which has even respected a year long price channel. While there is always a chance that this rally is complete, until price breaks down from Fib support I believe it can run higher and reach the 1.00 extension In the Intermediate degree based on the (A)-(B) structure. In the very near term GMIN does look due for a pullback in Minuette degree wave (iv) before making its final run higher in (C). Overall GMIN has rallied over 4000% from September 2020 lows. What a run!!
SSR Mining Inc (SSRM)
We last reviewed the near term wave structure for SSRM in Surf Report 9.2-5 when I was looking for a potential top in wave (iv) but also watching for an alternate bullish breakout and invalidation of the larger degree downward structure. As we can see from the updated SSRM chart, the Fib resistance level in the orange downside count has held so far and SSRM may now have a top in place for Minuette (iv). We still need bit more confirmation and continued downside structure to confirm as well as Fib support between $7.21-$7.91 to break before the alternate bullish count in yellow can be removed.
Calibre Mining Corp (CXB.TO)
We also reviewed the larger degree count for CXB.TO in Surf Report 9.2-5. Calibre Mining’s merger with Equinox is making progress but is not yet complete so lets go ahead and provide an update in the shorter term timeframe. In Surf Report 9.2.5 we were looking for further upside in Intermediate (C). Zooming into the 144-min chart we can see that Minuette c of Minute C is filling out quite nicely and still has room to run higher in my view. I also added an alternate count in yellow to show the case in which the Minute degree structure completes as a 5-wave impulse within an Intermediate wave (3). Since there are several ways to count the larger degree structure, I’m not able to refine the Fib target box further at this time. However if price suddenly breaks down below major Fib support between $2.43-$2.98 at any time we will be able to assume with higher probability that the Intermediate high is complete.
Fortuna Silver Mines Inc (FSM)
Its been quite a few months since we last reviewed FSM in Surf Report 9.5-2. AT that time we were viewing the entire wave structure from the September 2022 lows as a potential impulse. Given the amount of overlap and wave durations, you can see that I’ve updated the count as larger three wave diagonal. Price recently tested prior support near the $4.15 level then quickly rebounded. It appears that another Minute degree 3-wave structure with Minute wave c is now in progress. Major Fib resistance lies just above though between $6.55 and $7.28.
Sandstorm Gold Ltd (SAND)
Just over a month ago when we first looked at SAND in Surf Report 9.2-5, were were looking for an A wave to complete in a Minor degree three wave diagonal nested within an even larger three wave diagonal. SAND has delivered the “paper”, as in profits for those who were long. We are now likely seeing an impulsive 5-wave structure in the Minuette degree to complete Minute wave C of Minor A. This could be topping soon but we don't have negative divergence on the MACD yet so SAND shares can certainly extend higher.
Genesis Minerals Ltd (GMD.AX)
Next up is GMD.AX which we reviewed the larger degree wave structure for in Surf Report 9.2-4. At that time, it looked as if GMD.AX was destined to complete an Intermediate degree wave (5) within its Primary wave 3 structure. Zooming closer into the 6-hr timeframe, we can see that some outstanding progress has been made. Minor 3 of Intermediate (5) is getting some really strong extensions and could possibly see some overthrow above the top of the price channel before Minor wave 3 completes. This strong price action in turn could also lead to higher extensions in Minor wave 5.
K92 Mining Inc (KNT.TO)
K92 Mining Inc. is a rapidly growing, low-cost gold producer operating the high-grade Kainantu Gold Mine in Papua New Guinea. K92 has achieved six consecutive years of increased gold production, with over 149k oz AuEq in 2024, and is advancing its Stage 3 and 4 Expansions to establish a Tier 1 gold operation. K92 is also focused on exploration, with notable discoveries like Kora North and Arakompa, and maintains a strong financial position with record revenues and net income. Its a brand new chart for the Endless Summer series and Substack as whole. Lets look at the larger degree wave structures first. In the daily chart below we can see a pretty clean 5-wave impulsive structure in the Intermediate degree filling out in the shape of multi-year ending diagonal. Currently, Minor degree wave 3 of Intermediate (5) is in the process of completing but there should be one more wave thereafter to complete (5) after a Minor wave 4 pullback complete. In 2016-2018, KNT.TO was a penny stock and now it trades in the low teens. Not too shabby to say the least.
Orla Mining Ltd (ORLA)
This Substack actually first looked at the larger degree count for ORLA all the way back on Surf Report 4.1 published more than two years ago in January 2023. At that time we were considering that an important Intermediate degree low could potentially be in place where I stated ”I see a bull flag that will be an fantastic Intermediate wave (3) to ride once it breaks out. 22x from here if standard Intermediate (5) extensions are reached.” Well now that 22x is down to just 7x with price rallying a full $7.25 or 180% from the level ORLA was trading at at the time that Surf Report was published. There is still some room for more upside, however caution is needed as price is now entering the Intermediate degree Fib resistance zone. Minor degree 3 has plenty of structure in it to be considered complete so I wouldn’t be surprised if Minor degree wave 4 begins in the near future.
Summary
Based on the GDXJ chart and the individual miners we’ve reviewed in this report (as well as updates to many other charts for top GDXJ holdings I’ve updated for premium subscribers), there is still some meat left on the junior gold mining stocks bone. While most of the charts like GMIN.TO, SSRM, GMD.AX, SAND, and ORLA may be approaching a local top, other like FSM, CXB.TO, and KNT.TO are postured to rise a bit further. It continues to be a wild ride and likely hard for some to stay up on their boards. Its very important to focus on the waves and not get emotional when the market becomes volatile. Let the waves be your best guide so you can decide when is the best time for you to end your ride. Remember that investing in this sector is still not very mainstream. According to a 2024 Sprott Gold Report, less than 1% of global assets under management (AUM) are allocated to gold, compared to 8% at its peak in 1980. Gold is beginning to get everyone’s attention. Its just a matter of time until these junior gold miners get even more attention than they typically have historically. I wanted to share this following analysis with you as well. In the chart below I’ve compared price performance between Gold, GDX (senior Gold producers), and GDXJ (junior gold miners) since the initiation of the precious metals bull market which began in 2015. As you can see at every Intermediate peak, GDXJ has been the top performer. Its currently on its way but not there yet. We can also see how GDX and GDXJ have seriously lagged gold’s performance compared to prior cycle peaks in 2016 and 2021. Very interesting indeed…
Thank you for reading this Surf Report! The next Surf Report will cover the next set of holdings in SILJ. I know I probably sound like a broken record in saying that silver STILL has quite a bit of catching up to do with gold. The Gold-to-Silver ratio itself is pushing higher. No precious metals bull market is complete with out a catch-up rally in silver. Many silver miners will eventually benefit as well based on what I’m seeing in their wave structures.
Until next time…
Cheers and #EndTheFed!
-Hypersonic78
Disclaimer: None of this is financial advice! Please do your own diligence. The views expressed here and other Surf Reports are my own. Only risk what you can afford to lose in these crazy markets. Know your timeframes, parameters, and personal risk tolerance.
Position Disclosure: I remain long physical silver and gold (mostly silver) and am long a handful of individual precious metals mining shares not covered in this report.
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