Surf Report 9.5-1: The "Endless Summer" in Precious Metals and Miners
Junior Silver Miners, SILJ Part 1
As we are preparing to ride some pretty big Elliott waves in the Precious Metals and Mining sector, let’s take few minutes to appreciate another legend of ocean surfing. Known for big wave riding and the inventor of “tow-in surfing”, Laird Hamilton is not afraid to take on new challenging waves such as the “freak of hydrodynamics” that was found at Teahupoo in Tahiti in August of 2000…
Laird trained his whole life for riding the wave that could have seriously injured him or worse. But he chose to not live in fear of what “could’ve happened”. He was in tune with his abilities, mentally focused, and knew exactly what he could handle. But he never lost respect for what those big waves could do to him.
When you make a mistake, the ocean gives you an instant reminder. You get punished. If golf clubs could shock you every time you hit the ball wrong, we'd probably learn how to play golf pretty well.
-Laird Hamilton
Although not always instant (but certainly sometimes in the junior mining sector 😂), the markets can also be quite punishing when you make a mistake. But at the same time we mustn’t let fear take over when things go wrong. Its key to understand what your own risk tolerance is, your capabilities to use sentiment in your favor rather that let it control your emotions, and most importantly know what the waves are doing so you know how to react to them, just as Laird did on that ridiculously “heavy wave”. Let’s now continue our analysis of the sector and reach a better understanding of Elliott’s waves that are in play with an update on the Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF (SILJ) and its top holdings.
This Surf Report is a little different because many of the top holdings in SILJ are also present in the top holdings of the ETFs we’ve already reviewed in Surf Reports 9.2-1 (GDX), 9.3-1 (SIL), and 9.4-1 (GDXJ). In fact, there are only two new miners (SILV and AYA.TO) that we will be looking at for the first time in this Endless Summer series. Therefore we will be looking at more 144-minute charts to investigate how the waves are taking shape in most of the charts.
SILJ Update
You hopefully noticed that wave 2 in the update we completed for the larger degree view for SILJ reviewed in Surf Report 9.1 when we first started this series. I even stated that “I see that wave 2 that’s coming as an absolute gift to add more power if surfing this wave.” Well that minor degree wave 2 has filled out quite a bit now and may possibly have completed. Zooming into the 144-minute chart shown below, we are now looking for 5 waves up as the first signal that wave 3 is now underway. Please note that if we receive confirmation of a completed wave, the wave 3 extension levels for wave 3 could be even higher than shown.
Pan American Silver (PAAS)
PAAS is the second largest holding in both GDXJ and SIL, and is the largest holding in SILJ. We’ll again complete a near term on the 144-min chart which is shown below. Like SILJ, PAAS may have also completed its consolidation in Minor degree wave 2 after a nice 5-wave impulsive Minor degree 1. But once again we need to see a fuller 5 waves up to be a bit more certain that wave 2 is in fact complete and the recent price strength over the past few days is not just a larger (b) wave within a deeper 2.
Harmony Gold Mining (HMY)
HMY was last covered in the last Surf Report 9.4-1 so now we'll again zoom in to the near term view on the 144-minute chart. HMY is in the process or possibly has already completed a wave (iv) in the Minuette degree within Minor C of (A). With the correction being a little shallow thus far, one would a larger ABC corrective structure. However, after this last weeks price action I am seeing a micro 5 waves up forming in HMY (as shown in the 8-min insert) so we can’t discount the possibility that all of wave (iv) is now complete and its already on its way in wave (v) of C.
Coeur Mining (CDE)
CDE is also a top holding in SIL as well as SILJ so we will do also do an update on the 144-min chart. I’m seeing the potential that we may have seen a shallow wave (iv) of 1 and price may already be moving towards an even higher (v) of Minor degree wave 1. Please watch for negative divergence though which would help indicate that wave 1 is coming to it’s completion. Remember wave 2s can retrace deeply and we don’t want any wipeouts. Wave 2 should be looked at as another gift for longer term investors to add to their positions in this silver producer.
Hecla Mining (HL)
HL is also a top holding in the SIL and its longer term count was reviewed in Surf Report 9.3-1. Let’s take a look at the near term view using the 144-minute timescale in this report to see if the surf may be turning up in America’s largest silver miner. There is potential here for that scenario, but like some of the other charts we’ve already updated we need a bit more evidence to be certain the the next wave has truly started. This rally we’re seeing can easily be a b wave bounce with a lower c wave thereafter. If the low in wave 2 is confirmed, then wave 3 targets would need to be adjusted a little higher as well. Its worth noting that surfing this upcoming wave 3 will also take price above that multi-decade downtrend line! 🏄️🤙
Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM)
One mining stock that just keeps showing up again and again in these surf reports in WPM. WPM is a top holding in GDX, SIL, and also SILJ, so this will be our third time updating it in this series. Could wave (iv) be finished? Of course it can but we need to see 5 waves up and a small corrective pullback holding support to increase that probability. This week’s price action sure has started with impulsiveness though. So far price has remained above the wave (i) of 3 high of $50.95 so the Minor degree impulsive structure remains intact.
SilverCrest Metals (SILV)
SILV is our first new chart covered in this Surf Report! We last looked at the larger degree count in SILV in Surf Report 3. Since that report (which was published all the way back in January of 2023), price has made an impulsive 5 waves up and is in the process of completing a 5-wave impulsive structure in the minor degree. I did update my degree notations to better fit the timescale, and you’ll also notice I’ve added an alternative ABC count in yellow as a potential long term structure. In either case, the longer term structure remains bullish. This especially the case if it can make a 5th wave here in the coming weeks and months to complete an Intermediate wave (1) inside of of what would be Primary 3 or C.
Buenaventura (BVN)
BVN is a top holding in SIL (Surf Report 9.3-1) and GDXJ (Surf Report 9.4-1). Looking at the 144-min chart, we continue to see a wave (iv) of 3 price consolidation. In Surf Report 9.4-1, we saw that MACD had reset and now we can see clear positive divergence building as price corrects. This could indicate either a (b) wave bounce is coming or (iv) is nearing its completion. We have one more wave in Minor degree 3 to finish this very clean wave structure.
Aya Gold and Silver (AYA.TO)
As I began preparing for this Surf Report a couple weeks ago, AYA was not on the initial list of charts to review and publish. I had prepared a chart for Artemis Gold (ARTG.V) which was actually a brand new chart I hadn’t looked at before. Y’all will have to wait for Surf Report 9.5-2 for that chart; in just a the span of a couple weeks, AYA.TO has now overtaken ARTG.V as the 8th largest holding in SILJ. Like SILV, we last reviewed the longer term count in AYA.TO in Surf Report 3. During that time, we were looking for a 5th wave up to complete a Primary wave 3. Well looky here! AYA appears to be on her way to completing a 5th Intermediate wave within Primary 3! Elliott’s waves are in play with a beautiful longer term structure in AYA.
Summary
Although many charts were revisited (on smaller timeframes), I hope you have gathered the same conclusions that I have in that we are now seeing some potential that the current price consolidations may be over. However, the recent local lows need to be confirmed. Everything in the bullish larger degree counts remains intact in my view. Don’t let your fears control your decisions when choosing to ride (or not ride) any of these waves. Take time to understand the waves beforehand and understand your own risk tolerance and timeframes.
We’ve now completed initial reviews of the top holdings of GDX, SIL, GDXJ, and SILJ. At this juncture, and for this particular report, I’m going to open up the paywall for all subscribers so they can have chance to see what’s being done in the premium section. There you will notice the actual “Hypersonic Surf Report” which has now been built up with coverage of the metals, GDX, SIL, GDXJ, SILJ, and top ETF holdings. There you will find linked charts for everything we’ve covered to this point in time. A lot of my time and effort has gone into this and now I’m pleased to share it with a larger audience this one time. This file is regularly updated and shared each Surf Report for premium subscribers.
Are we now done with this series? Not even close! We will circle back to GDX for next report and cover another batch of top holdings. But I am also considering revisiting either the Uranium complex (as an update Surf Report 8) or begin a new series on Battery Metals and related firms. Look for an upcoming poll here and on X in a few days so I may gauge interest there.
Until next time…
Cheers and #EndTheFed!
-Hypersonic78
Disclaimer: None of this is financial advice! Please do your own diligence. The views expressed here and other Surf Reports are my own. Only risk what you can afford to lose in these crazy markets. Know your timeframes, parameters, and personal risk tolerance.
Position Disclosure: I remain long physical silver and gold (mostly silver) and am long a handful of individual precious metals mining shares including HL and SILV which were reviewed in this particular report.
As we enjoy our “Endless Summer” in Precious Metals in Miners, we’ll use this section with regular updates to Gold, Silver, GDX and other main sector indicates to reach a better understanding of what the waves are doing. I will also highlight anything notable I saw when updating the near term 144-minute charts.
Gold
Gold has rallied quite nicely this past week and is now approaching Minuette degree Fib resistance. If price can break through that with an impulsive 5 waves, then the alternate count for perhaps a lower wave (iv) will be greatly reduced. The larger Minor degree structure remains bullish. Let’s let Gold prove itself. My “hunch” says it can!
Silver
Silver continues its march higher within what I’m counting as a Minor degree wave 3. I said during the last report that when silver reverses it could be quite powerful and given this weeks bullish price action, its off to a great start. I am also seeing initial signs of a 5 up in the submicro count, price is now back above the minor degree Fib resistance/support level, and above the psychological $30 price point. We still need to see a corrective pullback here after this weeks rally to greatly reduce the odds of seeing a lower wave ii however, so I am cautiously bullish near term. Longer term, every day brings us one day closer to the inevitable #silversqueeze that will make Mr. Slammy drown in his own tears.
GDX
A couple weeks ago in the last Surf Report, we were looking for GDX to make a full 5 wave structure off the June 17 low in a wave (ii) of 3. The submicro count failed to complete 5 up, however a larger micro count is now in play as shown in the 8-min chart below…
If GDX can complete this 5-wave structure then its more likely the local low in wave (ii) can be confirmed. We just need a little more time and structure to fill in before we’ll know for sure but the price action of the last week was certainly constructive. We’ll also need to adjust potential Fib extension targets for waves (iii) and (v) of 3 based on the confirmed low in wave (ii).
Below is the updated Surf Report file which includes refreshed 144-minute TradingView charts for Surf Reports 9.1, 9.2-1, 9.3-1, 9.4-1 and detailed price target, support, and wave invalidation data for the companies covered within this report. I’ve highlighted areas in the report tables where I’ve updated chart links or anything else important.
I didn’t see any major changes within the wave structures for the charts previously covered in prior reports in this current series. Many are trying to confirm recent local lows but need a fuller 5 waves up to be certain. NST.AX continues pulling back more than would be expected for a wave (iv) so I’m questioning the validity of count in the current degree. I also added what we’ll now refer to as a 🏄️“Hypersonic Wave Surfing Trade Note”🏄️ to the AG chart. These are personal trades I’ve done in my own portfolio to ride the potential waves we’re seeing. I’ll start including these notes from time to time and keep you updated on how these trades progress. These are very small side bets outside of my longer term core positions in this sector. No need to follow and definitely not financial advice! I just thought y’all may be interested to see a little about what I’m doing personally with some of these waves. “Don’t talk the talk, if you can’t walk the walk (or surf the surf)” as they say.
Please don’t hesitate to comment if you have trouble understanding any of the content on the charts or report table. Again thank you for subscribing to this effort. We’ll do this again in a couple weeks.
Cheers and #EndTheFed,
-Hypersonic78
It's sure going to be an interesting 6 months or so. Great charts and updates, thank you.